TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Yankees vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,379,886
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,423,109

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,379,886 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 315 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37d3…709abacked Athletics9c402,200$35,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,313.88220.7%17 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2643…39aebacked New York Yankees56c357,918$201,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156,643.656758.2%39 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Athletics44c200,000$88,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,999.9613340.6%54 W · 79 L-14.4wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Athletics33c127,191$42,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,069.31,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Athletics44c91,378$40,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,204.785645.3%388 W · 468 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Athletics43c56,161$24,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,149.0223948.5%116 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked New York Yankees56c50,000$28,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,00041149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees76c35,353$26,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,541.2810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed New York Yankees75c31,215$23,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,711.381,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees60c28,772$17,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,529.8411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked New York Yankees56c22,745$12,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,971.81,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Athletics7c20,237$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.5624639%96 W · 150 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics40c18,413$7,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,402.824,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed New York Yankees58c18,000$10,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,559.9860451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed New York Yankees56c17,631$9,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,726.533,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Athletics24c17,165$4,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,085.6613534.1%46 W · 89 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Athletics42c15,849$6,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,718.3292054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Athletics45c15,556$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,00098149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca28…49debacked New York Yankees59c11,784$6,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,831.635050%25 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked New York Yankees58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,20053150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Athletics0c9,700$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.88762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed New York Yankees58c9,300$5,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,905.9944851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06fa…455cbacked Athletics33c8,873$2,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8843135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics6c8,109$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.3312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67f4…f91bbacked Athletics0c8,088$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6312426.6%33 W · 91 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Athletics42c8,000$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,36024651.6%127 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Athletics43c7,777$3,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,344.1147953.2%255 W · 224 L+18.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics43c5,690$2,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,446.735,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed New York Yankees57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1509560%57 W · 38 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Athletics44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20075049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Athletics43c4,951$2,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,128.841,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Athletics16c4,854$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.4431958.6%187 W · 132 L+27.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Athletics45c4,600$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,07014252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Athletics43c4,394$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,877.721,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65c9…cf56backed New York Yankees56c3,944$2,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,735.443467.6%23 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Athletics43c3,840$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.3650153.5%268 W · 233 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Athletics42c3,778$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.6327254.4%148 W · 124 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed New York Yankees58c3,697$2,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.2644953.7%241 W · 208 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf35a…ce87backed Athletics19c3,684$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002733.3%9 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+41.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Athletics43c3,333$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.191,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaba5…4e0ebacked New York Yankees68c3,272$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.7417460.9%106 W · 68 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed New York Yankees56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3201,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Athletics41c3,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2301,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb2f…9156backed New York Yankees57c2,864$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.585100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+82.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Athletics10c2,861$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.012,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees63c2,796$1,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.119,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Athletics41c2,389$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.471,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20e5…082abacked New York Yankees57c2,389$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.094100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fba…26dcbacked New York Yankees58c2,346$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.9823152.8%122 W · 109 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e86…cb8fbacked New York Yankees56c2,300$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0127451.4%38 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Athletics1c2,292$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.495852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab4e…c4a0backed Athletics45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf77e…b594backed Athletics1c2,005$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51515.9%3 W · 48 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+188.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Yankees57c2,000$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.682,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Athletics43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86024150.6%122 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed Athletics42c2,000$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.6514647.3%69 W · 77 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Athletics4c1,978$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1260043.3%260 W · 340 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees75c1,956$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.728,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Athletics2c1,910$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.216725.1%42 W · 125 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed New York Yankees57c1,900$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.831,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Athletics41c1,806$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.6177951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Athletics42c1,800$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75686653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Athletics1c1,783$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.171,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Athletics43c1,520$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.8189053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Athletics11c1,473$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.878,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Athletics23c1,472$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.741,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Athletics43c1,387$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.416349.2%31 W · 32 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed New York Yankees58c1,122$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.3773748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63a7…3bb2backed New York Yankees56c1,117$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.494158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked New York Yankees56c1,107$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.145259.6%31 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa177…4b0dbacked Athletics14c1,058$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14312132.2%39 W · 82 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed New York Yankees57c1,053$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.6322753.3%121 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Athletics16c1,045$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.1570735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed New York Yankees57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.0416248.8%79 W · 83 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed New York Yankees57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43019248.4%93 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x242c…286dbacked New York Yankees55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa969…1a84backed Athletics41c941$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.8117452.9%92 W · 82 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed New York Yankees57c931.13$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.3919246.9%90 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Athletics18c930.6$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.295,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Athletics42c919.98$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.391,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics34c894$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.932,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3c7…d601backed New York Yankees57c877.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.1910750.5%54 W · 53 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5453…65cebacked New York Yankees57c877.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.1911848.3%57 W · 61 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x540f…92bebacked New York Yankees56c875$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38511250%56 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed New York Yankees57c869$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.6766050.2%331 W · 329 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked New York Yankees56c846.24$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.246558.5%38 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletics43c799.98$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.476,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked New York Yankees56c790.93$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.011,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9cdc…25d5backed Athletics20c762.15$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.681145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x914a…920fbacked New York Yankees57c710.53$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.534959.2%29 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked New York Yankees57c701.75$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.7520848.1%100 W · 108 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked New York Yankees57c700$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30185952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed New York Yankees56c700$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3081,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Athletics41c690$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.984049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Athletics43c672$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.961,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed New York Yankees57c617.23$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.4111551.3%59 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f0b…5577backed New York Yankees59c594.71$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.8329449.7%146 W · 148 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd024…126fbacked Athletics17c590$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe22a…cb75backed New York Yankees57c530$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.926948.7%131 W · 138 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Athletics42c517.09$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.5561450.8%312 W · 302 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.