Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aa4d3488e1dd55086fc5ac30daa6e1904d539f73b97ec998c78ef0064a5fb46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x617c…a1b6backed No | 4c | 782.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 561.3$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.02 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 453.65$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 271.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 180.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 155.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 48c | 144.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 47c | 144.09$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 107.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 27c | 92.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 21c | 85.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 74c | 77.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 49c | 73.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…9379backed Yes | 22c | 64.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 21c | 63.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked No | 76c | 52.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 27c | 52.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 63c | 47.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 41.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 40.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 32c | 36.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 71c | 36.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 32c | 33.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 41c | 32.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 72c | 29.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 28.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 74c | 24.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 22.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 79c | 20.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 18.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 16.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 70c | 16.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ca…e577backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 78c | 15.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.