Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x310f8bb3998a50db33ddd38f829ab909429817696538e54142033d7e5195ae33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 60c | 875.79$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.05 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 74c | 463.28$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 459.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…42f0backed Yes | 63c | 428.93$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.78 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 36c | 272.44$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.44 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 242.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 31c | 235.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.84 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 61c | 205.57$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 12c | 147.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.46 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 58c | 140.02$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617c…a1b6backed No | 18c | 136.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.73 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 130.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 42c | 125.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 111.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 45c | 111.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 63c | 107.67$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 64c | 97.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 93.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 90.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 45c | 89.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 45c | 87.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 87.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 30c | 84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 47c | 70.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed No | 44c | 62.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…f3d2backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 54c | 58.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 24c | 50.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 44c | 45.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 29c | 45.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 80c | 42.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 61c | 41.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 38c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 66c | 36.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed No | 39c | 35.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…9379backed No | 39c | 33.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb93…d52abacked No | 56c | 32.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 70c | 28.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 26.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 51c | 26.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 57c | 24.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…6294backed No | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…2004backed Yes | 59c | 21.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 70c | 20.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 69c | 20.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 56c | 19.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 66c | 19.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 18.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5329…fea7backed No | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.