Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Sion vs. Noah FA: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2abdc18c33a34bab7897078117d0971868e9fb8eacb6e6c9883be32c99c08e6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 47c | 3,540$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.12 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb98…b473backed Over | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 1,170$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.29 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 32c | 866.38$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.37 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 51c | 836.93$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.8 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 60c | 623$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.84 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 40c | 419.55$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.82 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 52c | 399.69$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.23 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…6674backed Over | 57c | 396.49$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 323.3$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 54c | 183.19$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 45c | 178.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 31c | 146.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 81 | 21%17 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…7633backed Over | 44c | 122.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.42per pick | 44cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 77c | 103.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 96.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 70c | 90.09$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 40c | 87.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 51c | 86.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 56c | 73.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Under | 47c | 71.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 66.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 48c | 44.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 40c | 39.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Under | 55c | 33.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 55c | 33.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Under | 49c | 31.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 59c | 28.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 58c | 26.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…65f2backed Under | 49c | 23.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 23.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…4d49backed Over | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Sion vs. Noah FA: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Sion vs. Noah FA: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Sion vs. Noah FA: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Sion vs. Noah FA: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Sion vs. Noah FA: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Sion vs. Noah FA: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Sion vs. Noah FA: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Sion vs. Noah FA: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Sion (-1.5)Noah FA won
- Spread: FC Sion (-2.5)Noah FA won
- Spread: Noah FA (-1.5)FC Sion won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.