World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2abfe3890a0a641d82776486724ac418a3aa8ccc69b72a67318baaa92807922e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 30c | 1,341$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.17 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 301.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.8 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 214.39$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.03 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 214$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 33c | 211.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.36 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 37c | 110$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 56c | 101.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 44c | 99.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 63c | 86.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 41c | 82.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 80.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7323…1affbacked Yes | 47c | 76.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 66.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…fa13backed Yes | 37c | 54.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8a…5d15backed No | 60c | 53.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 51.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 46.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 44.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 41.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 39.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 66c | 37.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 69c | 34.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on July 24?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on July 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on July 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.