Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2add674eed97a8a0b2a17926986adb10fd2ab96fd0ea5da4b8a5c000719d0742
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 389.09$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 260.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 35c | 226.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.67 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 173.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 25c | 160.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 11c | 159.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 12c | 138.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 112.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 100.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…6adabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 31c | 98.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 17c | 86.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 34c | 85.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 69c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 14c | 81.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 70.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 24c | 68.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 22c | 67.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed Yes | 24c | 51.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 22c | 46.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 45.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 42.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 24c | 42.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 40.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 30.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 66c | 28.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 71c | 24.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…0f9fbacked No | 76c | 23.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 66c | 21.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 66c | 20.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…c3a6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 67c | 17.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d1…a942backed No | 74c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.