Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26b7580f6ccf9018322c1972735ed3e9d7957c5f19a2798970f8c4de67f3f808
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 468.84$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 289.06$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 24c | 263.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 13c | 215.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 208$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 155.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 44c | 143.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 38c | 140.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 136.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 132.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 38c | 130.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1441…0b51backed Yes | 61c | 128.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 128.06$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 31c | 125.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 34c | 111.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 109.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 39c | 103.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 101.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 41c | 100.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 35c | 95.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 38c | 95.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 90.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…8e23backed Yes | 33c | 89.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 18c | 88.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 69c | 87.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 80.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 49c | 80.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…90cabacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…5e85backed Yes | 70c | 75.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 34c | 75.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 38c | 68.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 28c | 68.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 41c | 68.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 64.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 64.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 62.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 38c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8292…0482backed Yes | 37c | 58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 26c | 55.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked Yes | 79c | 54.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 54.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 61c | 53.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 42c | 51.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…2100backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 50c | 49.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 43c | 49.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 60c | 45.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 41.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 49c | 37.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 37.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 33.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 37c | 29.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 47c | 29.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 60c | 29.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 38c | 29.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 28.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 46c | 28.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 63c | 28.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 38c | 27.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 69c | 25.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 60c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…c3a6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.