Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x039792a2ee36fdd03cbdd64a2c5f036053252be570d9c76788e79d042f18ffa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 5c | 627.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 475.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 468.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 19c | 379.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 56c | 327.98$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.29 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 56c | 302.46$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 294.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 41c | 290.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.9 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 287.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 59c | 253.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 45c | 240.67$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.8 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 25c | 200.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.28 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 35c | 193.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 188.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 45c | 165.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 49c | 165.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 50c | 150.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 60c | 140$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 79c | 139.53$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 136.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 37c | 135.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 44c | 134.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 32c | 128.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 59c | 124.59$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 72c | 119.26$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 67c | 115.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 35c | 111.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 109.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 14c | 102.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 66c | 101.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 19c | 99.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 18c | 88.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 32c | 88.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 87.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 32c | 85.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 20c | 85.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 36c | 84.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 33c | 74.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8292…0482backed No | 56c | 69.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 36c | 68.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 66.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 57c | 64.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 62c | 62.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 80c | 59.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 53.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 22c | 53.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…7260backed Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 44c | 45.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 32c | 42.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 41.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 66c | 41.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 40c | 40.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…8e23backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 38c | 39.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 38.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 63c | 38.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked Yes | 40c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 33.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 41c | 32.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 31.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 51c | 31.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 28.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 75c | 27.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…1b67backed No | 71c | 21.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 77c | 20.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…c3a6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…2c60backed Yes | 80c | 12.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.