Cricket · resolved market
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Europe Sub Regional Qualifier C: Germany vs Portugal
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2af06ce3b3bda9bc0048315d9e14f2bd9d98a81b54179e73dd21042984c0d761
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Portugalof Germany, Portugal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96b9…a560backed Portugal | 54c | 1,850$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.2 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb69…cdf0backed Germany | 45c | 1,295$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Portugal | 54c | 946.78$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.1 | 641 | 43.1%276 W · 365 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…d3b2backed Portugal | 54c | 632.12$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.78 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fe…3c28backed Germany | 29c | 598.98$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 33cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fff…9b0abacked Germany | 9c | 567.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Germany | 17c | 549.77$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Germany | 29c | 507.74$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.07 | 568 | 37%210 W · 358 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Portugal | 68c | 232.3$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 228 | 34.2%78 W · 150 L | -17.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…7736backed Germany | 43c | 158$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Germany | 43c | 146.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 385 | 44.4%171 W · 214 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Germany | 13c | 138.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Germany | 35c | 121.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 676 | 31.4%212 W · 464 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Portugal | 75c | 99.32$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Portugal | 59c | 97.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Portugal | 61c | 94.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | +17.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Germany | 47c | 79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Germany | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Portugal | 55c | 72.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Germany | 42c | 70.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Germany | 44c | 66.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…5561backed Germany | 46c | 62.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…8fe4backed Germany | 45c | 62.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Germany | 20c | 54.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…cc7bbacked Portugal | 72c | 52.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 47 | 80.9%38 W · 9 L | +8.0wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Germany | 56c | 44.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 269 | 29.4%79 W · 190 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Germany | 48c | 34.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Germany | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 219 | 36.5%80 W · 139 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…b434backed Germany | 33c | 30.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a57…913fbacked Germany | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 290 | 51.7%150 W · 140 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Portugal | 55c | 26.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b7…e26bbacked Portugal | 62c | 22.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Portugal | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Portugal | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 178 | 53.4%95 W · 83 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.