Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b18489437786e1e1d3283136167b7dac17778ed253847c00530b536b0ba6100
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed Yes | 17c | 799.96$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.79 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 435.77$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 33c | 361.13$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.67 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 38c | 299.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.82 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 65c | 226$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked Yes | 30c | 191.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 190.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 22c | 146.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 77c | 135.82$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 78c | 127.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 22c | 114.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 111.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 38c | 99.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 94.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 32c | 88.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 67c | 71.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 42c | 66.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…0c69backed Yes | 32c | 64.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 78c | 64.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 60.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 74c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 55.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 30c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 22c | 50.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 47.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 33c | 47.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 72c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 46.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked No | 77c | 42.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 38.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 39c | 36.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 34c | 33.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 33.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 69c | 30.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 68c | 29.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 37c | 28.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 28.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 63c | 28.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…e54bbacked No | 75c | 26.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 67c | 26.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cd…00c4backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 24.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 73c | 23.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed No | 75c | 23.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 74c | 20.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 63c | 19.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 70c | 16.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…e242backed No | 68c | 15.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…3668backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 78cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.