Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c69c1049d5fa5157926ea7f3e9922054b08e8788441b521173a24adf31d793a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 48c | 423.92$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.2 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 37c | 311.05$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.03 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 80c | 308.48$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 302.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 42c | 293.05$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.23 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 42c | 278.88$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.34 | 899 | 29%261 W · 638 L | -22.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 41c | 243.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.81 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 183.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 36c | 161.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 31c | 153.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 149.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.52 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 136.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 76c | 126.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 68c | 126.17$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 37c | 114.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 466 | 47.4%221 W · 245 L | +46.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 69c | 103.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 32c | 98.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 404 | 32.7%132 W · 272 L | +24.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 33c | 98.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 90.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | +15.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 57c | 87.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 82.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 25c | 77.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 75.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 18c | 68.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Yes | 77c | 64.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 24c | 61.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 384 | 42.4%163 W · 221 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 47c | 60.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,908 | 55.6%1,060 W · 848 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…a2e1backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 43c | 58.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 56.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 46c | 56.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 54.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…7bc3backed Yes | 41c | 48.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 79c | 48.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 26c | 46.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 43.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 913 | 73.3%669 W · 244 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 61c | 41.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +20.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 75c | 41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 40.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 3,046 | 33.5%1,021 W · 2,025 L | +12.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,275 | 47.6%607 W · 668 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…cab9backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 33c | 39.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1,627 | 37.8%615 W · 1,012 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 50c | 38.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 27c | 38.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 37.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 36.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 934 | 61.8%577 W · 357 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 73c | 34.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 32.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 60c | 30.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddb…81eabacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 119 | 68.1%81 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 25.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x995a…7deabacked Yes | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 23.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 21.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 56c | 21.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 939 | 2.4%23 W · 916 L | -386.8wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 73c | 20.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 17.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 74c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…e242backed No | 78c | 13.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.