Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x520d3f5c0db24a285d54bcb3f03079485f2baf680ecaeed04ee52c72b45f0f54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 76c | 326.79$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 39c | 313.19$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.14 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 36c | 280.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 223.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 151$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 145.91$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 119$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 34c | 109.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 41c | 106.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 34c | 95.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 36c | 94.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 13c | 85.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 64c | 82.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 39c | 81.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 74.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 71.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 66.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 62.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 60.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 60c | 57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 51.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 48c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 61c | 50.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 49.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 60c | 42.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 32c | 38.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 36.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 36.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 35.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 68c | 33.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 32.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…fd4ebacked Yes | 41c | 27.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 59c | 22.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked No | 66c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 65c | 19.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 65c | 18.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 67c | 17.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 69c | 16.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…e242backed No | 65c | 16.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x995f…3ebabacked No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 15.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 67c | 14.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.