CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Marsborne (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b261da139a5b3814a550095a23719dc8776ea1c2914f90764d1a9b7aad39c76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- M80of M80, Marsborne
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked M80 | 57c | 6,982$4,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,974.98 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…5977backed Marsborne | 49c | 5,680$2,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,767.01 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Marsborne | 47c | 1,447$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.44 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed M80 | 46c | 1,275$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.17 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Marsborne | 25c | 1,250$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.63 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked M80 | 77c | 1,051$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.37 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Marsborne | 28c | 771.36$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.19 | 339 | 49%166 W · 173 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…2579backed M80 | 51c | 585$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.05 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…dcc0backed M80 | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed M80 | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 388 | 68.3%265 W · 123 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Marsborne | 40c | 492.69$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.25 | 332 | 37%123 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed M80 | 63c | 435.61$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.38 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked M80 | 49c | 394.59$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.24 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…b5a5backed M80 | 49c | 335.35$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.03 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +18.3wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed M80 | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Marsborne | 47c | 276.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.06 | 988 | 56.1%554 W · 434 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa6…f3b0backed M80 | 62c | 271.7$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 136 | 75%102 W · 34 L | +22.9wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Marsborne | 38c | 262.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 211 | 39.3%83 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Marsborne | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…f1a3backed Marsborne | 35c | 186.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…2fc7backed Marsborne | 21c | 180$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 434 | 42.2%183 W · 251 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Marsborne | 9c | 163.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +211.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Marsborne | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Marsborne | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Marsborne | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…6365backed M80 | 59c | 139.27$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Marsborne | 20c | 122.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…1d7dbacked Marsborne | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Marsborne | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 11.9%12 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Marsborne | 45c | 77.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…d906backed M80 | 56c | 42.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Marsborne | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Marsborne | 29c | 39.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed M80 | 52c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +68%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Marsborne | 28c | 38.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…b87ebacked M80 | 71c | 35.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed M80 | 40c | 34.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 499 | 35.1%175 W · 324 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…ceeabacked M80 | 72c | 34.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed M80 | 72c | 31.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 428 | 45.6%195 W · 233 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1d…95debacked M80 | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed M80 | 58c | 24.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed M80 | 55c | 21.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…482cbacked M80 | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…3487backed M80 | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…942bbacked Marsborne | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked M80 | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb694…023ebacked Marsborne | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed0…7ad5backed M80 | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.