MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b34e76935d25426350dd2aad5b491b7017408865b27c99fbb0741b101fd3dff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 5,804$3,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,451.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 3,631$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 3,353$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.53 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 54c | 3,333$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.33 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 2,721$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 2,191$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.82 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Over | 46c | 1,953$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.38 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…3fb8backed Under | 7c | 1,200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b94…b660backed Over | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 46c | 921.95$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.85 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 60c | 551.99$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.56 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 52c | 457.7$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.7 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 427.68$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.29 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 28c | 389$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Over | 35c | 371.95$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…ec60backed Under | 65c | 281.77$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 48c | 229.16$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…1c4abacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 28c | 195.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 172$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 58c | 169.43$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 59c | 167.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 58c | 156.48$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 60c | 127.82$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 67c | 90.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 80.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Under | 71c | 77.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…7ef8backed Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 71c | 71.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 44c | 68.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 60c | 67.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 67.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 37c | 59.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Under | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 59c | 47.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 44c | 42.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 41.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c8…a25cbacked Under | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…40ecbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 120 | 53.3%64 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Under | 63c | 23.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 54c | 18.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under | 58c | 17.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 70c | 17.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.