MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe83a97fead69a6b2aa76e5d6a8baf6b2855e94a41aef397d46976371e5ff3fe8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 47,000$29,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,959.98 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 17,453$6,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,630.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 10,552$4,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,235.12 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 8,982$3,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,555.78 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 8,500$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 7,777$4,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,110.8 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 4,368$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.84 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 3,871$2,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.47 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 2,911$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.07 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 2,750$1,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.38 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 17c | 2,275$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.96 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 1,733$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.45 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 1,306$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.96 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 929.52$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.51 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 676.58$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.67 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 643.1$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.38 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 483.74$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.66 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 459$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.01 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 400$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 348$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 327.75$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 304.38$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.66 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Atlanta Braves | 26c | 287.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f67…ba88backed Atlanta Braves | 5c | 275$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…164bbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 241.92$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.35 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 241.87$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.33 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 202$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 186.62$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 180$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 24c | 161.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Atlanta Braves | 32c | 151.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 148$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Atlanta Braves | 32c | 132.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 127.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked San Diego Padres | 73c | 125.27$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 71c | 113.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 112.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 107.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 97.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 80.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 77.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Atlanta Braves | 25c | 76.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Atlanta Braves | 13c | 76.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 71.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 69.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 66.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 65.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 58.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked San Diego Padres | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 40.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Diego Padres | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 38.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked San Diego Padres | 70c | 35.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 32.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…b12cbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 31.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 28.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…dc4ebacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 26.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…f5bdbacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 24.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 19.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked San Diego Padres | 78c | 16.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.