Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b395166df0ec70ca250c6e2a18fb38b7fcaea764f815efe6442947e33f4c043
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,161 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 1,132$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 31c | 597.59$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.64 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 22c | 367.08$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.1 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 366.45$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.41 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 9c | 351.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.09 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 26c | 281.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.67 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 34c | 271.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.09 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 262.28$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 230.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.46 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 31c | 227$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.01 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 10c | 189.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 39c | 176.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.13 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 21c | 171.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.1 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 49c | 165.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 34c | 154.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 150.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.89 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…e47bbacked Yes | 18c | 145.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.61 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 21c | 140.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 139.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 131.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.42 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.42 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 34c | 117.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 116.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 111.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 31c | 100.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 30c | 96.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 50c | 94.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 71c | 89.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 84.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 83.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 33c | 80.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 33c | 70.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 15c | 70.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 34c | 69.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 67.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 62.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 61.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 68c | 60.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 58.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 18c | 56.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 23c | 53.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 30c | 49.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 31c | 48.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 35c | 46.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…8eb5backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…0f61backed No | 73c | 39.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 69c | 38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 37.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 35.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 74c | 33.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 71c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 67c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 73c | 24.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x194c…88c5backed No | 77c | 24.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 80c | 24.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 66c | 19.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 72c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.