Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68474289785a1eaae26777d0d423dc9527958813030903659b2e16f24cbf2c3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,285 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 46c | 573.53$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.1 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 61c | 329.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 47c | 275.4$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 271$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 63c | 257.9$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.74 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 53c | 251.61$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 36c | 251.6$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.69 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…e47bbacked Yes | 73c | 246.16$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.52 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 53c | 244.41$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…b492backed Yes | 67c | 202.36$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 67c | 200$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.62 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 48c | 191.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 53c | 185.53$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 50c | 182.41$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 30c | 149.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.85 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 52c | 144.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 63c | 138.39$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 131.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 130.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 122.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 116.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 109.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 31c | 107.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 98.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 94.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 90.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 85.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 81.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 27c | 81.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 53c | 71.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 52c | 71.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 58c | 69.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 37c | 67.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 66.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 46c | 64.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 25c | 64.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 42c | 61.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 47c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…8a7bbacked Yes | 59c | 50.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 80c | 50.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa036…2318backed Yes | 48c | 47.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 56c | 46.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yes | 33c | 45.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 33c | 44.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe192…1e11backed Yes | 33c | 44.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 52c | 44.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…cef7backed No | 71c | 41.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 40.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 49c | 39.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…47e1backed No | 57c | 38.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 65c | 38.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95f…04c4backed Yes | 54c | 37.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee7…9783backed Yes | 43c | 36.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes | 59c | 35.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 32.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 51c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 73c | 28.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…b1fcbacked Yes | 36c | 28.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…8900backed No | 58c | 25.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…be07backed No | 53c | 24.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 54c | 24.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 48c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 53c | 22.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 47c | 21.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 49c | 20.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 65c | 19.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfd…5e81backed Yes | 58c | 18.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.49per pick | 65cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 16.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 70c | 14.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 72c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.