Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b48eb23a477e7737f38fb7b088a11ec46ca9a3fc2fa1fc5d0e81eea18d0f73b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,581 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,811$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 9c | 2,729$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.89 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed No | 77c | 1,202$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.74 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 3c | 632.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 625.65$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 563.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 24c | 496.8$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.03 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 27c | 484.98$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 16c | 441.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 399.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 350.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 20c | 306.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 221.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 80c | 214.4$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 8c | 178.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 176.56$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…70e3backed Yes | 23c | 157$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 26c | 145.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes | 10c | 137.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 136.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ee…4be5backed Yes | 26c | 135.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 13c | 135.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked Yes | 11c | 133.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 26c | 125.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 33c | 121.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 17c | 119.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4505…1cf0backed Yes | 9c | 113$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 12c | 95.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked No | 69c | 68.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 22c | 66.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7638…b72dbacked No | 78c | 64.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec77…dd24backed Yes | 28c | 58.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 56.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 26c | 50.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb507…7f2abacked Yes | 26c | 44.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 79c | 32.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b7…40eebacked No | 76c | 30.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…65bdbacked No | 75c | 26.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee4…9039backed No | 79c | 14.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…255dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.