Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb01431e9fe07f5b7b28480908d595fc677c15610decf5b8f77071c8c64efa84c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,460 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dbe…6351backed No | 49c | 23,000$11,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,270 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…0a1bbacked Yes | 51c | 23,000$11,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,270 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…c1dcbacked No | 0c | 11,537$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…cfc8backed Yes | 41c | 2,580$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25d…c540backed Yes | 41c | 2,500$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd2…740dbacked No | 59c | 1,702$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…633cbacked No | 59c | 1,693$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…e029backed No | 59c | 1,685$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…2e87backed Yes | 64c | 1,640$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2a…7ab2backed No | 36c | 1,640$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…143fbacked Yes | 64c | 1,630$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…a3c3backed No | 36c | 1,630$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 52c | 1,220$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.64 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 6c | 778.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 20c | 404.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 47c | 382.18$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.07 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 43c | 339.6$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.85 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 9c | 300.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.32 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 25c | 300$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 38c | 243.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.99 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 45c | 242.19$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.17 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 55c | 207.21$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 17c | 185.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.76 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…72dabacked No | 9c | 169.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 156.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 71c | 155.63$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 154.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.35 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 39c | 149.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd1…9c76backed Yes | 48c | 146$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 144.42$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 66c | 142.54$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 60c | 131.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 11c | 115.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 29c | 108$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…b70cbacked Yes | 55c | 104.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 57c | 103$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 60c | 102.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 31c | 99.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 59c | 98.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 90.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 75.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 69.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 56c | 60.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…4310backed Yes | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 55.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed Yes | 49c | 55.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 68c | 54.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 59c | 51.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 60c | 50.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 43c | 48.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 24c | 46.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…901dbacked No | 70c | 42.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0d…b018backed No | 59c | 42.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 35c | 41.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 43c | 38.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 52c | 38.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 36.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaad…6499backed Yes | 55c | 34.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b7…adf5backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 49c | 24.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293a…24f9backed Yes | 44c | 22.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 48c | 21.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 50c | 20.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 56c | 18.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…38c6backed Yes | 58c | 17.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 65c | 15.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.