TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,219

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,219 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x60b7…0623backed Yes24c2,790$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked No4c1,982$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,911.3943021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes2c1,800$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441822.2%4 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes2c1,523$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.22,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91a7…b2dbbacked No76c1,428$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef0…b81cbacked No75c1,390$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73ff…9ffabacked Yes1c996.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No7c792.51$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.6659742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed No12c791.95$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.9111044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2588…48babacked Yes30c704.53$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.023855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No23c581.03$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.1357545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes32c569.06$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.861,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes77c426.48$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.6232548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c399.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No75c397.21$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5491967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No59c340.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.5486050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes8c313.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.988,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa819…4310backed No72c289.99$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.41172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes21c283.44$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.161,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed Yes72c277.93$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes25c255.12$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.991,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13e6…c310backed Yes22c254.08$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8415911.3%18 W · 141 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No76c235.94$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4331262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No42c219.33$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.1512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No75c211.99$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.852,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bd1…9c76backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes44c182.43$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3329137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a5…e304backed Yes50c180.15$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.683551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No49c169.93$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7ce2…80edbacked Yes30c164.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504223.8%10 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes41c159.44$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.596852.9%36 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes29c149.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6852935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed No77c147.85$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0186226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No72c142.53$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9152245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes19c137.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.721,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c7…d9dbbacked No60c134.66$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.271163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes37c114.73$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.671,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c110$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.752,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb25b…5c94backed No74c105$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+28%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36f1…847fbacked Yes38c104.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes18c102.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5817338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes74c101.43$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.981,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa3…5a51backed No43c101.24$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.54136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a99…e614backed Yes15c100.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0218116.6%30 W · 151 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f88…da69backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2817949.2%88 W · 91 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3906…f74bbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.96053.3%32 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes25c99.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9915626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…34d2backed No76c98.81$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.816674.2%49 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a28…c2e1backed No55c98.09$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.351546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick29cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes26c98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5132444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes26c96.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512230.3%37 W · 85 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes18c90$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.23,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76ae…99f1backed Yes23c89.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51625%4 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d14…abaebacked Yes61c87$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.053060%18 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No17c81.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3533620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes25c79.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2062555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e72…bd5dbacked No64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.136065%39 W · 21 L+8.1wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes27c77.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2121333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d2…2df1backed Yes52c70$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes57c66.01$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3732044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No76c65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6552571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b0f…50bebacked No77c64.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.778535.3%30 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes27c64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.269434%32 W · 62 L-10.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.292,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ab…c998backed Yes27c61.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.56137.7%23 W · 38 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes21c60.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.416944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed No41c59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.734651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes42c56.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.961,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed Yes41c55.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2352533.1%174 W · 351 L+21.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes36c51.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.421,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed Yes28c50.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0868521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53fe…5b95backed No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.761421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-62.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes27c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.528737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No67c45.55$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.924,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbac…435fbacked Yes36c41.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158153.1%43 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7638…b72dbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No72c39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9241070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes28c36.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0910537.1%39 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No41c33.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7599961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked Yes67c32.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0637570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No77c32.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.561,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35b3…8d9bbacked No77c32.4$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaad…6499backed Yes34c32.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f8c…7794backed No75c32.26$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.061145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0408…3d68backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.521262.3%132 W · 80 L+20.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.55129.4%15 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cee…507abacked Yes72c25.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.664465.9%29 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-7.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44a3…121fbacked No77c25.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.835561.8%34 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed No65c23.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0874023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c97…988cbacked No67c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7cd…043fbacked Yes74c20.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.875666.1%37 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes72c18.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.