Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0394e1c3798768cf180bee42f387f891efe6a7fbacf222424ab99836c8cb29b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,219 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60b7…0623backed Yes | 24c | 2,790$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 4c | 1,982$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,911.39 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,800$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 2c | 1,523$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91a7…b2dbbacked No | 76c | 1,428$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef0…b81cbacked No | 75c | 1,390$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…9ffabacked Yes | 1c | 996.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 792.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.66 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 12c | 791.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.91 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 30c | 704.53$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.02 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 23c | 581.03$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.13 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 32c | 569.06$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.86 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 77c | 426.48$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.62 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 397.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.54 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 340.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 313.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…4310backed No | 72c | 289.99$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 21c | 283.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 72c | 277.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 255.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 22c | 254.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 76c | 235.94$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 219.33$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 211.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd1…9c76backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 44c | 182.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed Yes | 50c | 180.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 169.93$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked Yes | 30c | 164.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 41c | 159.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 29c | 149.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 77c | 147.85$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 72c | 142.53$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 137.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c7…d9dbbacked No | 60c | 134.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 37c | 114.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25b…5c94backed No | 74c | 105$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked Yes | 38c | 104.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 18c | 102.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 74c | 101.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed No | 43c | 101.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 15c | 100.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 76c | 98.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…c2e1backed No | 55c | 98.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 26c | 98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 26c | 96.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…99f1backed Yes | 23c | 89.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked Yes | 61c | 87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 17c | 81.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 25c | 79.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 27c | 77.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d2…2df1backed Yes | 52c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 57c | 66.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked No | 77c | 64.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 27c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 27c | 61.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 21c | 60.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 41c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 42c | 56.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 41c | 55.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 36c | 51.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 28c | 50.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fe…5b95backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 45.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 36c | 41.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7638…b72dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 28c | 36.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 41c | 33.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 67c | 32.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b3…8d9bbacked No | 77c | 32.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaad…6499backed Yes | 34c | 32.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8c…7794backed No | 75c | 32.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 72c | 25.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 77c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…988cbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked Yes | 74c | 20.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.