Ligue 1 · resolved market
Lille OSC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b4ae5e057483f55f2b53b69df86cfc4f9187b8e233bd800665ebfdb913c7256
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 17c | 4,374$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.64 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 3,466$2,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.74 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 69c | 2,751$1,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.2 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…784ebacked Over | 44c | 2,570$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 31c | 2,149$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 58c | 1,385$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 993.68$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.63 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 66c | 404.24$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 33c | 140.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 19c | 89.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 77c | 74.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 61c | 50.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…baefbacked Over | 35c | 44.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae04…7411backed Under | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 67c | 15.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lille OSC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5this page
- Lille OSC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Lille OSC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.