Ligue 1 · resolved market
Lille OSC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ee1ec2ab46618bdebf675ebda17f9d181e2ad50947605dee4340c398d7ff803
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 6,397$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,337.49 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 40c | 4,536$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.23 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 79c | 3,999$3,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,159.36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…9abfbacked Over | 79c | 2,339$1,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,844.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 35c | 1,764$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.58 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 54c | 1,268$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 1,256$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.17 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0943…5ce6backed Over | 49c | 792.04$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 2c | 745.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe3…5470backed Over | 80c | 412.5$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 55c | 396.87$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.28 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 20c | 391.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.84 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 64c | 354.13$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.64 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Under | 21c | 348.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02fb…0a53backed Over | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Under | 50c | 300.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.04 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 35c | 268.61$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.35 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 50c | 235.23$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 52c | 231.48$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.37 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…5cf9backed Over | 48c | 207.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0965…f434backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 55c | 149$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 20c | 148$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Over | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…fc20backed Over | 68c | 109.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over | 79c | 88.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 68.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 21c | 62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77cc…fdccbacked Over | 80c | 43.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Over | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…c234backed Over | 51c | 29.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…48bbbacked Over | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +476.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lille OSC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5this page
- Lille OSC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Lille OSC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.