MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b5a12a59fec9e48df50234d110c68ac02e154966860029cd5b2d6adda8d3da0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x055c…dcfabacked No | 15c | 3,239$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +251.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 72c | 2,604$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.75 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11dd…f832backed No | 19c | 1,580$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +402.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 28c | 1,354$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.82 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9f…f1b6backed No | 9c | 960.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +235%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed No | 51c | 775.63$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.97 | 346 | 50.9%176 W · 170 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 50c | 748$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed No | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 49c | 488.88$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.55 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 49c | 410.94$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.58 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 51c | 261$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 152.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 51c | 150$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…90cfbacked No | 51c | 93.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 51c | 58.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked Yes | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 50c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0110…af5dbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astrosthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston AstrosBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.