MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa844a18c43dc13715fd954d88d0bcc8ddb1778d8959f1788657d01b46dc57e31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 1,557$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.49 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 1,503$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 38c | 850.2$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.51 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 768.65$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.32 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 61c | 567$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.13 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 555.27$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.49 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 37c | 299.63$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.81 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 37c | 286$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.82 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…29a8backed Over | 11c | 270$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 60c | 266.6$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.64 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 52c | 260.21$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.31 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 220.65$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.33 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 54c | 220$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f67…ba88backed Over | 8c | 204.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 54c | 138.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 65c | 116.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 16c | 95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 28c | 77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 63c | 76.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 51c | 53.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Under | 72c | 52.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 48.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 51c | 47.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…7d66backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 37.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 60c | 31.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 41c | 30.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 51c | 28.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 58c | 27.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 52c | 26.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 73c | 22.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 61c | 21.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 51c | 21.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 53c | 21.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston AstrosBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.