UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bb30301d2f407f95ab5a93339e11b9385c98dc9eb181b3d4a4399294e2489b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 65c | 953$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.8 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf998…13f5backed Yes | 33c | 602.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed No | 66c | 377.71$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Yes | 35c | 358$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…3c23backed Yes | 35c | 274.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 61c | 256.41$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…5678backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 66c | 169.7$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…e4c2backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 62c | 109$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 35c | 84.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Yes | 36c | 61.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 241 | 61.8%149 W · 92 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Reinier de Ridder (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Reinier de Ridder won
- Will Reinier de Ridder win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Roman Dolidze win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.