UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa42c6ddcaa7be92defbbda9a5ae5c9d3a29c740e8f1519ebf420d8fdb9f7a0dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bfe…2d74backed No | 58c | 18,703$10,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,938.5 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ae…66f3backed Yes | 42c | 10,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 42c | 3,988$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.79 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 46c | 2,125$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.6 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…89d7backed Yes | 45c | 1,240$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.87 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x719b…30e5backed Yes | 42c | 1,189$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 42c | 878$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.97 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked No | 53c | 666.23$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.23 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked No | 59c | 548.57$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.91 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked No | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Yes | 52c | 423.08$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked No | 53c | 378.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.61 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1c…7c29backed Yes | 42c | 350$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…4598backed Yes | 42c | 344.83$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.83 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed No | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Yes | 42c | 222.87$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.61 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 52c | 217.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9220…0fcbbacked Yes | 52c | 159.12$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 79c | 66.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 80c | 60.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 48c | 58.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 47c | 57.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a55…9aabbacked No | 59c | 51.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c1…026dbacked No | 59c | 51.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a34…92cdbacked No | 59c | 44.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 75c | 42.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 48c | 28.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 42c | 24.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Reinier de Ridder (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Reinier de Ridder won
- Will Reinier de Ridder win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Roman Dolidze win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.