Fifa International · resolved market
Will Colombia be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bd5eadd9a1da5633b68dbc3a70d1eab88a611d7190cd57c70b4243f163b4ba3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d1b…5adbbacked Yes | 26c | 787.23$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaea…1b60backed Yes | 20c | 698.85$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.24 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…9781backed Yes | 17c | 602.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed No | 75c | 473.11$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.43 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 388.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 80c | 376.52$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 157 | 40.8%64 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 316.74$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…2468backed Yes | 25c | 279.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 9c | 273.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 13c | 239.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 11c | 238.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 6c | 213.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 186.45$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 14c | 182.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 13c | 179.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 11c | 174.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Yes | 8c | 162.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 102 | 54.9%56 W · 46 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…99debacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 20c | 138$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Yes | 12c | 130.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 224 | 49.1%110 W · 114 L | +20.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 125.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 13c | 124.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 120$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 9c | 115.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9559…4913backed Yes | 15c | 100.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 85 | 25.9%22 W · 63 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 13c | 92.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7518…a533backed Yes | 15c | 67.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Colombia be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?this page
- Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?No won
- Will Ecuador be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?No won
- Will Paraguay be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?No won
- Will Uruguay be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.