Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c62285b413c9687f593ccef009274bc5d700768b466add901dc5be604104700
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,144 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 73c | 2,108$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.84 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 5c | 1,711$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 42c | 818.8$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.45 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 52c | 629.1$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.16 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 23c | 583.94$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.53 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 52c | 553.52$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.11 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 29c | 465.18$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.22 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 61c | 435.73$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.64 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 426.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 422.69$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 48c | 395.75$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.75 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 40c | 379$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.35 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 40c | 344.21$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b45…d5f4backed No | 4c | 291.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 62c | 244.48$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.68 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 48c | 234.35$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.19 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 6c | 231.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 24c | 225.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.42 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…5613backed Yes | 45c | 224.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.16 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 14c | 221.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.39 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 219.89$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.21 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 60c | 215$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.45 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 70c | 199.05$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.83 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 195.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 61c | 191.71$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.78 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37f…6b69backed Yes | 15c | 182.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +138%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 54c | 181$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 27c | 177.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e20…0815backed Yes | 59c | 170.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 163.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 13c | 157$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 155.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 31c | 146.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.65 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 59c | 146.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb7…6d16backed No | 78c | 127.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -79%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…d0a7backed Yes | 37c | 120.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 57c | 118.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 108.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 47c | 106.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 43c | 106.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…f41bbacked Yes | 61c | 102.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 99.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 76c | 98.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 98.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 79c | 94.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 46c | 94.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 40c | 93.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 56c | 90.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 55c | 88.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 48c | 82.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 30c | 81.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 41c | 79.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 41c | 73.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 43c | 69.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 55c | 69.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 68.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 57c | 65.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 45c | 56.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 45c | 54.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 38c | 50.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 43c | 48.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 56c | 46.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 37c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 33c | 45.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 65c | 45.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 51c | 43.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed No | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 49c | 40.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 32c | 40.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…158cbacked No | 60c | 38.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 55c | 36.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 42c | 36.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 64c | 36.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 36c | 35.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd8…5d8bbacked Yes | 44c | 34.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 32.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 80c | 31.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 39c | 29.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 52c | 28.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 56c | 28.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 46c | 27.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…2ec8backed Yes | 50c | 25.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 25.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…5d81backed Yes | 57c | 24.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 43c | 23.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xca23…6080backed No | 66c | 23.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 51c | 22.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 53c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.