Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5049d0a806ca86af9115347b979916e1781f9c2c8be764e7a4b4cfaab8caa19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,196 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 27c | 809.79$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.45 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…a62ebacked No | 69c | 725.74$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 661.26$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.37 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 26c | 555.61$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.72 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 80c | 534.32$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 425$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 409.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 398.64$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.82 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 40c | 393.61$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.99 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 379$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 364.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 14c | 355.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…5613backed Yes | 29c | 343.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 61c | 329.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 54c | 327.32$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked No | 76c | 325$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…f36dbacked Yes | 54c | 292.01$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.32 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 14c | 279.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.84 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 268.94$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 43c | 260.28$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.35 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 229$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 53c | 226.61$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 29c | 218.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.23 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e20…0815backed Yes | 30c | 198.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 29c | 183.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 179.88$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 178.83$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 13c | 176.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.95 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 64c | 172.2$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb7…6d16backed Yes | 67c | 149.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -79%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 134.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 28c | 134.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 30c | 131.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 23c | 115.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 64c | 112.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a3…4684backed Yes | 24c | 106$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 32c | 98.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 69c | 94.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 94.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 69c | 92.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 16c | 89.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 28c | 89.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 58c | 84.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 23c | 83.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.21 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 79.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 29c | 68.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 76c | 65.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…d0a7backed No | 50c | 65.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 41c | 64.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 46c | 63.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 62.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 49c | 60.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 53c | 59.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 59.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc075…cdd2backed Yes | 19c | 57.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…fa69backed No | 78c | 57.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +259.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed Yes | 48c | 55.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed Yes | 39c | 54.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 46c | 54.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 28c | 52.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37f…6b69backed No | 29c | 51.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +138%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 50.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…5c81backed Yes | 63c | 47.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 70c | 44.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 57c | 43.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 64c | 42.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 54c | 41.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…e23abacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 77c | 39.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 52c | 38.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 76c | 37.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 27c | 37.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 37.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…4518backed No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 80c | 36.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed No | 51c | 34.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked No | 80c | 32.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 48c | 31.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa470…f6bdbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…67afbacked No | 78c | 28.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed Yes | 64c | 27.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.