South American Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Juárez win on 2026-03-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c85045c4971d60d1fc46b2e613ea72ce700cdd495d0f1a41274a3d2125d945c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,366 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 15c | 4,986$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,242.92 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 67c | 2,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,968$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.09 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 16c | 1,384$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.52 | 109 | 22%24 W · 85 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 1,257$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.93 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.8 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…cba6backed Yes | 49c | 647.67$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.77 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 47c | 605.93$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.63 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 14c | 587$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.05 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 32c | 499.36$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.35 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 44c | 445.31$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.69 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 40c | 401.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.88 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 60c | 374.09$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.41 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked No | 58c | 327.16$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.63 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed No | 48c | 253.54$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 65c | 246$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.81 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 15c | 223.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.7 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 17c | 221.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.71 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 38c | 199.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 56c | 192.67$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 85 | 69.4%59 W · 26 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.31 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bc…eb11backed No | 62c | 184.13$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed No | 9c | 173.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 29c | 157.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.22 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 155.24$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 33c | 150.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.42 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked No | 10c | 136.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe68d…a292backed Yes | 19c | 119.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…df3cbacked Yes | 14c | 105.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…7c65backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 51c | 90.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Yes | 45c | 86.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 39c | 84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 59c | 83.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Yes | 19c | 81.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 55c | 71.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 51c | 59.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 80c | 48.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked No | 75c | 45.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 75c | 21.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Juárez win on 2026-03-04?this page
- Will CF América vs. FC Juárez end in a draw?No won
- Will CF América win on 2026-03-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.