NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ce32d5be07779b1ccf3540174fadb27fa3931241c06a7a233f3274d6fa1287e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Under | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,599.97 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +10.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 54c | 5,378$2,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,473.88 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 54c | 5,002$2,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.75 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 3,146$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.56 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Over | 54c | 1,569$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.52 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.11 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 46c | 1,061$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.92 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Under | 46c | 930$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.8 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 54c | 801.85$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.85 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…eac9backed Under | 47c | 425$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.75 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Over | 53c | 421.13$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.93 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 54c | 374$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.04 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 301.32$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.27 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…702dbacked Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed Under | 47c | 276.6$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 54c | 244$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 55c | 219.34$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.34 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Over | 55c | 183.09$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 46c | 182$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 54c | 138.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 54c | 135$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 54c | 132.11$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 10c | 123.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…400dbacked Over | 54c | 123.39$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Under | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 46c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed Over | 54c | 74.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 54c | 71.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 54c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe6…4acbbacked Under | 44c | 42.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Under | 46c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…2b47backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 47c | 31.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 46c | 30.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…5c7abacked Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…eae3backed Under | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…6febbacked Over | 54c | 21.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c4…0177backed Over | 55c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5582…f714backed Over | 54c | 18.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb330…c587backed Over | 56c | 17.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5this page
- Flyers vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Flyers vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Red Wings: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Red Wings won
- Spread: Red Wings (-2.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.