NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ce8427e514ab2678cab402d99d9cf4b21379247dec0cdebfeb2cfbb020da3d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 51c | 2,222$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.76 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 49c | 1,832$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.68 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 49c | 1,076$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.57 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 52c | 1,010$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.8 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 50c | 594$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 330.18$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.09 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 54c | 319.18$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.58 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 50c | 150.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Under | 75c | 149$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 76 | 71.1%54 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 62c | 130.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 121.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 50c | 103.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 41c | 85.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 18c | 67.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 31c | 67.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 49c | 63.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Under | 50c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 50c | 52.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 57c | 50.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 36c | 47.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 49c | 40.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 61c | 38.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec2…3fe2backed Under | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 64c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…f64abacked Under | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…908dbacked Under | 61c | 32.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 60c | 29.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 49c | 27.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 62c | 24.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Under | 64c | 20.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Under | 62c | 18.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kraken vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Kraken vs. SabresSabres won
- Kraken vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kraken vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kraken vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.