NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Devils: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cf9878b0cd76d840da22a9bd83b8de7476c786fd9d5b13068ec45c4289f5ce6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,789 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87a8…7ffbbacked Under | 61c | 1,000$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 39c | 448.33$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.39 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 42c | 375$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 58c | 361$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.62 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 40c | 350$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Under | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Over | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 24c | 70.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e69…7a30backed Under | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 58c | 52.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 37c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 34c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 41c | 27.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6a…d38abacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…7593backed Under | 58c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…80d0backed Under | 58c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…ba10backed Under | 58c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 58c | 18.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Devils: O/U 6.5this page
- Red Wings vs. DevilsRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Devils: O/U 4.5Under won
- Red Wings vs. Devils: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Red Wings won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.