NHL · resolved market
Spread: Devils (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5df0490716cf607ba15d3970ad154caaa74e7e49b332c88df3966e5406b18385
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Devils, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,221 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Devils | 30c | 3,030$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.09 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Red Wings | 70c | 1,679$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.57 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Red Wings | 70c | 735.99$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Red Wings | 70c | 711.82$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.55 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Devils | 28c | 652.13$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.6 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Red Wings | 72c | 398$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Red Wings | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Devils | 30c | 135$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Devils | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Red Wings | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Red Wings | 71c | 58.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…8106backed Red Wings | 72c | 33.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Red Wings | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. DevilsRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Devils: O/U 4.5Under won
- Red Wings vs. Devils: O/U 5.5Under won
- Red Wings vs. Devils: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.