NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Devils: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdb58e55d75d3db86d713b8985037c09914a399ab9b434570a78afb28eeda2c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,998 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58fb…1f65backed Under | 33c | 460.35$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.6 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 66c | 339.16$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.52 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 24c | 260.83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.23 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 76c | 132.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 41c | 99.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 413 | 40%165 W · 248 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…e152backed Over | 76c | 68.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -13.7wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 71c | 45.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 24c | 41.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 59c | 39.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 68c | 35.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed Under | 34c | 31.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 39c | 31.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…81a3backed Over | 76c | 25.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 68c | 19.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Over | 68c | 18.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Under | 68c | 16.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +55%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Over | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Devils: O/U 4.5this page
- Red Wings vs. DevilsRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Devils: O/U 5.5Under won
- Red Wings vs. Devils: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Red Wings won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.