Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-04-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cfd02a916d669212316e8cf09c6e64d20977a7f66810b2e77a3e25e11821828
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 15c | 2,553$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.14 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 77c | 1,282$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.92 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 6c | 1,138$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 77c | 788.07$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.15 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 32c | 726.49$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Yes | 56c | 714.45$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 57c | 629.76$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.18 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 23c | 526.16$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.02 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 44c | 439.27$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.28 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 3c | 370.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 75c | 316.77$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 57c | 243.24$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.59 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 20c | 223.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 44c | 222$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed No | 26c | 198.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…32f8backed Yes | 77c | 192.3$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 74c | 188.96$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 44c | 128.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 77c | 103.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 44c | 96.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked No | 25c | 95.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 43c | 92.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…57afbacked Yes | 57c | 85.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecb…1243backed Yes | 57c | 68.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 43c | 58.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked Yes | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 44c | 51.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 43c | 40.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed No | 26c | 39.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Yes | 76c | 31.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 56c | 26.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…32c1backed Yes | 56c | 25.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…14b2backed Yes | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 56c | 24.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 77c | 21.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Yes | 77c | 19.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Yes | 56c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-04-26?this page
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-04-26?No won
- Will VfL Bochum vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.