Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d041801e8385198c1cf4b160878a858202618f2847ae90c9e76c85f0522f6df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 16c | 721.59$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.52 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 29c | 500.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.03 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 30c | 340.35$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…98d2backed Yes | 49c | 339.87$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 30c | 307.63$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 71c | 244.69$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 68c | 221.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 6c | 199.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 168.88$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 147.62$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 27c | 139$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 136.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 67c | 125.47$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 116.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 111.8$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 101$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x082b…c52ebacked No | 70c | 97.21$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 30c | 85.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 85.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 69c | 82.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…362abacked Yes | 27c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 24c | 65.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 34c | 63.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 32c | 61.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 78c | 60.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 33c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 32c | 58.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 58.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 55.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 55.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 70c | 52.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 75c | 50.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 50.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 47c | 48.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 24c | 47.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 47.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 45.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 41.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 40.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 37.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 34.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 42c | 33.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 31.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 33c | 31.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 26.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 71c | 26.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Yes | 39c | 25.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 24.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 72c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 67c | 23.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…46bebacked Yes | 61c | 20.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 70c | 19.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 19.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…5ab1backed No | 65c | 17.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 68c | 17.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 69c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…e0fcbacked No | 71c | 14.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.