Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x434e523af8d1eb2d2970e3278b61f5573d344a4a958f94fa57927ec810b9f5b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 73c | 465$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.06 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 64c | 335.43$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.62 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 72c | 299.09$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.57 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 30c | 245.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 189.46$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 171.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 161.2$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 160.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 10c | 145.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 123.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 49c | 123.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 11c | 116.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 37c | 105$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 15c | 103.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 97.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 52c | 95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…98d2backed Yes | 79c | 94.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 27c | 91.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 63c | 88.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 83.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 61c | 82.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 21c | 82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 80.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 16c | 78.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 26c | 73.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…76b9backed Yes | 75c | 67.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 52c | 65.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 22c | 64.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 36c | 59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 58.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 54.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 48c | 53.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 24c | 48.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 65c | 47.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 70c | 43.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4e…dba5backed Yes | 72c | 41.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 33c | 39.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 32.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 30.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 61c | 29.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 67c | 29.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9877…61b5backed Yes | 73c | 29.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 37c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed Yes | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 66c | 27.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…b41abacked No | 65c | 22.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 56c | 20.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 58c | 18.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.