TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Hawks: O/U 251.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,957
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,808

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,957 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under45c2,962$1,347 inWon+$1,615.39,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc96…8a0bbacked Under49c2,100$1,029 inWon+$1,0712759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48a9…cd76backed Over51c2,100$1,071 inLost-$1,0713265.6%21 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Over50c1,908$952 inLost-$952.4920055%110 W · 90 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdb1…15fabacked Over57c1,754$1,000 inLost-$1,0003351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98b5…e61fbacked Over57c970.77$553 inLost-$553.343743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Under45c555.56$250 inWon+$305.5621142.7%90 W · 121 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under46c525$242 inWon+$283.571547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab9b…d007backed Over57c357.89$204 inLost-$2043844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under52c250.41$129 inWon+$121.465855.6%366 W · 292 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1869…f2d5backed Under47c242.55$114 inWon+$128.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Under50c200$100 inWon+$10024454.1%132 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34c…93cebacked Over57c140.35$80 inLost-$80650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20b…502cbacked Under51c117$60 inWon+$57.33771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+34.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over53c100$53 inLost-$52.52,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc079…8881backed Under50c100$50 inWon+$507753.2%41 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72e4…0369backed Over48c67.01$32 inLost-$32.166445.3%29 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc36…1b11backed Under47c63.83$30 inWon+$33.839943.4%43 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ba…abc3backed Under49c56$27 inWon+$28.561250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Under50c50$25 inWon+$2595548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b9…3d1fbacked Over50c40$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under50c40$20 inWon+$202,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Under46c39.02$18 inWon+$21.0262546.9%293 W · 332 L+1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under47c35$16 inWon+$18.552,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd2…2b28backed Under51c30$15 inWon+$14.74656.5%26 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under47c26.05$12 inWon+$13.811,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.