NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5ca1c594839493e69dd4906a7023f8c3d5c72828689a048df0113be595beacd

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bullsof Hawks, Bulls
Resolved: Dec 24, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $52,802
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $53,356

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,802 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Hawks	50c	35,857$17,959 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,959.31	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1536…aba4backed Bulls	50c	10,042$5,021 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,021	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.52per pick	49cpaid	+106.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bulls	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,000	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x243f…322dbacked Bulls	50c	9,200$4,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,600	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Bulls	50c	8,800$4,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,400	485	46.4%225 W · 260 L	-14.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Hawks	51c	5,586$2,849 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,848.71	506	53.2%269 W · 237 L	+8.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls	47c	3,448$1,619 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,828.35	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls	48c	2,699$1,303 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,395.69	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Hawks	53c	2,584$1,369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,369.5	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Hawks	50c	1,944$972 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$972.22	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls	49c	1,505$733 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$771.96	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Hawks	50c	1,505$753 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$752.55	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Bulls	49c	1,100$539 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$561	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc60d…8887backed Bulls	50c	980.54$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490.27	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	-7.3wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Hawks	50c	700$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Hawks	51c	521.57$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264	357	49.6%177 W · 180 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Bulls	49c	424.49$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.49	232	48.7%113 W · 119 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Bulls	49c	271.02$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.64	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d04…9435backed Hawks	53c	214$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.42	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+3.9wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Hawks	53c	213.21$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113	364	50.8%185 W · 179 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Bulls	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	150	52.7%79 W · 71 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Bulls	49c	179.59$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.59	136	44.9%61 W · 75 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls	50c	127.05$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.6	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Bulls	48c	104.17$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.17	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked Bulls	49c	104.08$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.08	165	52.7%87 W · 78 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Bulls	30c	100$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	141	27.7%39 W · 102 L	-16.4wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Hawks	51c	99.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.99	263	39.5%104 W · 159 L	-13.8wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Bulls	49c	99.98$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.99	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Hawks	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	327	50.2%164 W · 163 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Hawks	52c	66.59$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.63	734	45.5%334 W · 400 L	+8.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d48…b9a1backed Hawks	53c	60$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	192	54.7%105 W · 87 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x46d4…44b3backed Bulls	55c	54.55$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.55	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Hawks	52c	53.66$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.9	231	53.2%123 W · 108 L	+6.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Bulls	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ef2…6e74backed Hawks	53c	41.51$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	-8.2wins	-0.21per pick	52cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5093…dee4backed Hawks	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed Hawks	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	273	59%161 W · 112 L	+8.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce49…4740backed Hawks	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	236	42.4%100 W · 136 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ae…2103backed Hawks	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	-5.9wins	-0.13per pick	58cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f40…600dbacked Hawks	54c	35.81$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.34	139	45.3%63 W · 76 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Bulls	47c	35$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.55	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Hawks	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bulls	49c	27$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.77	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Hawks	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	142	51.4%73 W · 69 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hawks (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event