NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21518771731ad7be1ed090cc776ac7262c459d4d07a09aeb5fa93914edf85d7d

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bullsof Hawks, Bulls
Resolved: Dec 24, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $57,510
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $60,841

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,510 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfb97…a686backed Hawks	48c	15,788$7,578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,578.39	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.18per pick	49cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf699…14adbacked Bulls	52c	15,450$8,034 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,416.2	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Hawks	47c	9,418$4,426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,426.46	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Bulls	53c	8,000$4,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,760	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Bulls	52c	4,998$2,580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,418.16	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Hawks	47c	3,502$1,646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,645.85	92	63%58 W · 34 L	+9.8wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks	48c	3,000$1,440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,439.99	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bulls	51c	2,939$1,499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,440	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks	49c	2,939$1,440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,440	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Hawks	47c	2,528$1,188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,188.16	240	51.3%123 W · 117 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls	53c	2,319$1,228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,091.14	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddd9…fe8dbacked Hawks	48c	2,000$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960	16	50%8 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9a…5ecebacked Bulls	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$960	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3273…5a11backed Hawks	47c	1,277$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-4.2wins	-0.17per pick	45cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Bulls	53c	1,249$662 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$586.92	363	51.2%186 W · 177 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Hawks	49c	1,003$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$491.6	238	50%119 W · 119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Bulls	53c	1,000$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$470	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b0…60e7backed Bulls	53c	969.06$514 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$455.46	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-5.2wins	-0.29per pick	51cpaid	-57.6%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Bulls	54c	800$432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$368	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks	49c	658.17$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.03	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls	49c	650$319 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$331.5	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Hawks	51c	650$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.5	102	44.1%45 W · 57 L	-6.9wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks	48c	627$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.96	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Hawks	49c	612.38$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.41	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Hawks	47c	600.03$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.64	344	47.4%163 W · 181 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bulls	53c	512.63$272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.94	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e7…85a1backed Bulls	54c	500$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230	195	56.9%111 W · 84 L	+20.0wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5520…32ffbacked Hawks	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	44	0%0 W · 44 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Hawks	8c	433$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.65	401	33.4%134 W · 267 L	+27.0wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90f6…48f3backed Hawks	49c	430.61$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211	62	56.5%35 W · 27 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bulls	52c	410.01$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.8	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Bulls	54c	370.37$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.37	96	59.4%57 W · 39 L	+8.6wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Hawks	46c	365.37$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.07	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4cb…4d21backed Bulls	52c	338$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.24	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+3.4wins	+0.15per pick	50cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x493e…76edbacked Hawks	50c	302.93$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hawks	49c	279.18$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.97	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Hawks	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfc3…93bbbacked Bulls	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bulls	52c	159$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.32	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Hawks	47c	147.15$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.16	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x079f…db87backed Bulls	55c	145.45$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.45	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Bulls	52c	134.62$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.62	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Hawks	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	509	54.8%279 W · 230 L	+14.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Bulls	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	522	42.7%223 W · 299 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38db…d245backed Bulls	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	100	58%58 W · 42 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Bulls	54c	93.26$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.26	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Hawks	48c	90$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Hawks	48c	83.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	195	48.7%95 W · 100 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb2e…ff2cbacked Hawks	49c	82$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.18	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0657…14efbacked Hawks	49c	71.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Bulls	53c	70$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.9	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4254…b8d2backed Bulls	55c	70$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.5	51	60.8%31 W · 20 L	+5.0wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4130…a35bbacked Bulls	53c	64$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.08	81	51.9%42 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Bulls	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70af…bcf2backed Hawks	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-3.1wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Hawks	48c	58.47$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.07	627	44.5%279 W · 348 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Hawks	40c	58$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.27	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ab7…180ebacked Bulls	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11e7…6d5cbacked Bulls	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-19%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Bulls	53c	56.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hawks	63c	54.05$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.05	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc535…6047backed Bulls	37c	54.05$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.05	138	34.1%47 W · 91 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Hawks	48c	53.67$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.76	94	51.1%48 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Hawks	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Bulls	52c	48.04$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.06	484	51.2%248 W · 236 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Hawks	49c	44.53$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.82	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42bf…30f7backed Hawks	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	68	42.6%29 W · 39 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5bc…a233backed Hawks	49c	40.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bef…b7c2backed Bulls	53c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.8	63	44.4%28 W · 35 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Bulls	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Hawks	44c	35.71$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.71	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc7c…666cbacked Bulls	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	80	45%36 W · 44 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Bulls	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	177	47.5%84 W · 93 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08cc…da60backed Bulls	53c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.1	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bulls	52c	29$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.92	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef23…9971backed Bulls	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	281	56.2%158 W · 123 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6931…89cabacked Bulls	55c	27.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.27	102	48%49 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Bulls	39c	27.27$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.63	311	44.4%138 W · 173 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Bulls	53c	26.42$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.42	599	48.4%290 W · 309 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1a…60e5backed Hawks	47c	24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33d…1969backed Hawks	47c	22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	46	54.3%25 W · 21 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Bulls	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f7…1cddbacked Bulls	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-10%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hawks (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event