TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,021 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e2f…ec47backed Under54c6,073$3,279 inWon+$2,793.974748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0352…3292backed Under51c6,000$3,043 inWon+$2,957.510158.4%59 W · 42 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over48c3,076$1,476 inLost-$1,476.491,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c1,322$625 inLost-$624.639,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under50c644$322 inWon+$3222,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Over49c610.13$299 inLost-$298.9671547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Over49c495.1$243 inLost-$242.648347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d7…600bbacked Over41c487.93$200 inLost-$200.05119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.35per pick44cpaid-80.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Under53c322.39$171 inWon+$151.5251146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under52c261.66$137 inWon+$124.472,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over49c241$118 inLost-$118.092,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed Under57c139.18$79 inWon+$59.8513844.2%61 W · 77 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over49c123$60 inLost-$60.078,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe105…1efbbacked Over47c100$47 inLost-$473135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-28.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under52c83.81$43 inWon+$40.393,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Over47c78.57$37 inLost-$3720353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over47c71.93$34 inLost-$33.8193849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd925…3ab5backed Over49c60.27$30 inLost-$29.533554.3%19 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under53c55.24$29 inWon+$25.81,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over46c43.48$20 inLost-$2016546.1%76 W · 89 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0548…9e1cbacked Over49c41$20 inLost-$20.096656.1%37 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under50c40.53$20 inWon+$20.242,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under57c32$18 inWon+$13.7671245.8%326 W · 386 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over43c32$14 inLost-$13.761,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Over47c25$12 inLost-$11.8368940.2%277 W · 412 L-54.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.