NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e6914d15c44d45dfa377df14b1628a9a8997e35969d39152f8a936649c60322
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 46c | 9,365$4,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,278.1 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 2,493$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.59 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 54c | 1,433$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.98 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 1,161$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 62c | 911$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.28 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 55c | 897.62$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.56 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 57c | 884$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.32 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 57c | 567$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.81 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 41c | 533.09$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.4 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 55c | 516.74$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.49 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Under | 57c | 435.86$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.38 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 58c | 273.37$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.48 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 34c | 262.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 53c | 245.28$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 57c | 139.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 56c | 118.48$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 44c | 113.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 58c | 112.6$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 38c | 103$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +12.1wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Under | 68c | 87.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…2542backed Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 35c | 80.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Under | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…180ebacked Under | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 34c | 69.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 42c | 64.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 58c | 43.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 58c | 23.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…5a30backed Under | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 59c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 63c | 18.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5this page
- Hawks vs. NuggetsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.