NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4498b84f7b5f055554e5b19effc8f06b2ec0ad356f96f7ae64da209615646d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Nuggets, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Nuggets | 42c | 8,850$3,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,716 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 58c | 8,546$4,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,596.55 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Nuggets | 30c | 999.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.79 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hawks | 59c | 913.35$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.03 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks | 65c | 741.02$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.1 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Nuggets | 42c | 723$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.43 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Nuggets | 33c | 720.58$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.8 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 70c | 684.95$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hawks | 58c | 585.96$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.86 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Hawks | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Nuggets | 41c | 485.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Hawks | 59c | 423$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.43 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 42c | 338.48$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.87 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…3f90backed Hawks | 57c | 307.02$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.02 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Hawks | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c1…18c7backed Hawks | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Nuggets | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nuggets | 34c | 154.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Hawks | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf443…1ea1backed Hawks | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nuggets | 38c | 119$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Hawks | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Hawks | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Nuggets | 44c | 89.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Hawks | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Hawks | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1f…cb99backed Nuggets | 21c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090d…e0efbacked Nuggets | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Nuggets | 43c | 41.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Nuggets | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 157 | 58%91 W · 66 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Nuggets | 39c | 33.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Hawks | 58c | 33.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Hawks | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nuggets | 38c | 28.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Hawks | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Nuggets | 43c | 26.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Hawks | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)this page
- Hawks vs. NuggetsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.