NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d4405a007992d37b5fcde27c0ee81f26d4ba430551c308b35dcf67f6162a0a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Nuggets, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets | 45c | 9,659$4,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,323.05 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Hawks | 55c | 9,032$4,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,069.12 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 55c | 5,000$2,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,229.55 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Nuggets | 52c | 4,847$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Hawks | 52c | 3,465$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,658.56 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…d3dcbacked Nuggets | 28c | 2,835$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Nuggets | 48c | 2,601$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.48 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Hawks | 54c | 1,977$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.44 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Hawks | 51c | 1,630$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.7 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets | 50c | 1,592$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.15 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nuggets | 40c | 1,200$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks | 50c | 1,191$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.5 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hawks | 48c | 1,005$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.6 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…6759backed Nuggets | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -16.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Hawks | 56c | 891.26$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.26 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 45c | 615.81$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.88 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…cca5backed Hawks | 51c | 575.54$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.01 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Nuggets | 46c | 483.45$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.17 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Nuggets | 44c | 457.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 45c | 449.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.2 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Nuggets | 45c | 366.67$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Hawks | 52c | 331.35$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.35 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 72c | 302.49$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…a928backed Nuggets | 51c | 295.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…db14backed Hawks | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Nuggets | 32c | 273.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9f…b134backed Nuggets | 49c | 259$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.91 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Hawks | 70c | 210$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x190b…2f3abacked Hawks | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nuggets | 50c | 191$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Hawks | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Nuggets | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…4976backed Nuggets | 49c | 161$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…77e4backed Nuggets | 49c | 155$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Hawks | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 49c | 141.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Hawks | 50c | 131.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Hawks | 53c | 126.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed Nuggets | 50c | 113.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Hawks | 60c | 109$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…089abacked Nuggets | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Nuggets | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…2205backed Nuggets | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Hawks | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Nuggets | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Nuggets | 24c | 99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks | 65c | 96.61$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Hawks | 56c | 95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hawks | 54c | 94.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Hawks | 57c | 89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…44b3backed Hawks | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Hawks | 73c | 83.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked Hawks | 51c | 75.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…a291backed Nuggets | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Nuggets | 45c | 68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nuggets | 45c | 65.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Nuggets | 47c | 65.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…eaeebacked Nuggets | 50c | 56.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…a127backed Nuggets | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Hawks | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Nuggets | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…a00abacked Hawks | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hawks | 57c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Nuggets | 41c | 48.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nuggets | 41c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed Hawks | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Nuggets | 43c | 43.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 289 | 29.4%85 W · 204 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…9e1cbacked Nuggets | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4c…b7b8backed Nuggets | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Nuggets | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Hawks | 58c | 33.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Nuggets | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 317 | 45.4%144 W · 173 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Nuggets | 46c | 24.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadd…338abacked Hawks | 79c | 21.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8843…a5d2backed Nuggets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Hawks | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)this page
- Hawks vs. NuggetsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.