Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d4603560d3aab9d91452dd2ba9e8a33d2b730e6626a6e1428092c448c3f7790
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 632.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 498.16$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 68c | 276.14$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 75c | 180.89$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 67c | 158$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 128.65$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 42c | 127.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 123.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 118.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 116.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 66c | 113.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 33c | 99.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…81b4backed Yes | 26c | 97.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 28c | 89.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 77.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 77.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 24c | 66.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 18c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 26c | 62.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 18c | 60.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 58.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 57.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 54.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 20c | 52.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6146…9848backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…a589backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 49.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 26c | 49.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 26c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 24c | 43.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed Yes | 28c | 41.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 37c | 34.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 76c | 34.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked No | 67c | 31.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 28.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed No | 69c | 19.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C or higher on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.