Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x345f37d8e2d3d7aa33c85e00c9a786223faa8b54cb54e9eafa4e0347f37c1ccf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 637.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 400.52$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 274.41$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 39c | 265.91$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.71 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 38c | 239.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 10c | 239.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 41c | 238.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 40c | 207.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 60c | 196.67$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.67 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 190$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 168.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 39c | 134.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 30c | 126.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 115.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 13c | 107.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 106.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 34c | 103.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 42c | 102.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 41c | 91.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 79c | 77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 33c | 74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 73.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 72.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 16c | 71.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 30c | 71.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed No | 58c | 70.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 37c | 59.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 58.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 58.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d74…5393backed Yes | 42c | 54.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6146…9848backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 40c | 49.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 42c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 48.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 63c | 44.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…56a5backed Yes | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 43.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 38c | 42.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 60c | 41.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 41.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 42c | 38.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 37.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 61c | 36.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 29.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 38c | 29.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 62c | 28.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 38c | 27.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…bf76backed No | 74c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 22.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 20.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…384ebacked No | 80c | 18.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 56c | 18.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 62c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9434…d8d8backed No | 60c | 16.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 61c | 16.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 68c | 15.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C or higher on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.