Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebfa9b17e93eed72202725cf7297ae3fcd26cb05c54a94e27faee72d949870c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 12c | 352$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.12 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 251.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 25c | 242.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.76 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 195.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 25c | 195$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.25 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 173.69$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 172.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 18c | 166.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 165$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 21c | 151.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.68 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 10c | 148.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 147.14$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 106.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 103.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 76c | 103$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 21c | 95.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 17c | 86.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…bd7cbacked Yes | 12c | 84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 83.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 23c | 77.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 75.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 74.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 21c | 74.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 69c | 73.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 49c | 68.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked No | 51c | 68.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 38c | 59.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 19c | 59.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 63c | 58.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 56.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…f6e2backed Yes | 20c | 55.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 76c | 54.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 68c | 54.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 36c | 53.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 39c | 50.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6146…9848backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 30c | 49.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 47.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 22c | 45.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 24c | 45.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 56c | 42.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 37.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…0a5abacked Yes | 80c | 37.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…eec6backed Yes | 80c | 36.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 48c | 35.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 77c | 34.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 31.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 61c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 29.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 74c | 27.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 79c | 26.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…2100backed Yes | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 59c | 25.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked No | 77c | 23.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 63c | 19.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 15.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 78c | 13.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 13.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…1df8backed No | 79c | 12.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C or higher on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.