Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: SU (-2.5) vs Dark Passage (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d4949548c1dae9847a30fb43f72e54c0bc560e38e774f31e1ff8eba63fed6eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dark Passageof SU Esports, Dark Passage
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed SU Esports | 75c | 6,228$4,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,642.22 | 403 | 70.2%283 W · 120 L | +31.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…fefbbacked Dark Passage | 25c | 2,408$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.84 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdccf…faeabacked Dark Passage | 25c | 1,796$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.71 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcefd…d6aabacked Dark Passage | 27c | 1,086$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.55 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed SU Esports | 74c | 505$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…4e8fbacked Dark Passage | 25c | 362$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +302.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed Dark Passage | 25c | 295.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.14 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…0f6bbacked Dark Passage | 25c | 274.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed SU Esports | 60c | 266$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 1,047 | 50.3%527 W · 520 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Dark Passage | 40c | 266$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 1,156 | 45.1%521 W · 635 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Dark Passage | 45c | 265.65$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.01 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked Dark Passage | 24c | 196$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.96 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b7…c557backed Dark Passage | 28c | 189$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked SU Esports | 51c | 159.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 277 | 45.1%125 W · 152 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed Dark Passage | 23c | 152.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…ed78backed Dark Passage | 28c | 140.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…5152backed Dark Passage | 24c | 135.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.34 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked Dark Passage | 28c | 130.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c9…b32cbacked Dark Passage | 25c | 114.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…f7a1backed SU Esports | 77c | 99.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 113 | 69%78 W · 35 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked SU Esports | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…2305backed SU Esports | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc780…40a4backed SU Esports | 77c | 38.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf151…24c7backed SU Esports | 78c | 29.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed SU Esports | 77c | 28.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 60cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…c227backed SU Esports | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 83.8%67 W · 13 L | +11.2wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: SU (-2.5) vs Dark Passage (+2.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
- LoL: SU Esports vs Dark Passage (BO5) - TCL PlayoffsSU Esports won
- LoL: SU Esports vs Dark Passage - Game 1 WinnerSU Esports won
- LoL: SU Esports vs Dark Passage - Game 2 WinnerSU Esports won
- LoL: SU Esports vs Dark Passage - Game 3 WinnerDark Passage won
- LoL: SU Esports vs Dark Passage - Game 4 WinnerDark Passage won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.