Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d809d0425b31de7e16afded42ef8b1159329140d5f516715ecb23d64648480b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 53c | 363.06$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.64 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 254.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 233.18$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.56 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 21c | 225.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…031dbacked No | 7c | 209.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 188.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 38c | 158$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.58 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 150.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 66c | 149.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 66c | 145.87$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 134.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 127.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 97.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 63c | 90.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 45c | 86.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 85.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 61c | 81.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 35c | 74.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 45c | 70.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 78c | 67.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 30c | 52.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 49.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 70c | 48.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…b011backed Yes | 32c | 43.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 54c | 42.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 42.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 69c | 42.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 42.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 52c | 40.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 40.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 37c | 39.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 28c | 37.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 33c | 36.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 55c | 34.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 61c | 32.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 38c | 31.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 31.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 53c | 31.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 41c | 28.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 55c | 25.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 25.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 78c | 24.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 70c | 24.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 47c | 23.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 69c | 23.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 51c | 22.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…9750backed No | 65c | 22.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 63c | 21.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 57c | 20.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…d0a6backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 70c | 19.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 16.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…1631backed Yes | 70c | 14.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.